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]]>What proportion of the loss can we blame on the dawg toss? Lessee, Weatherspoon is an 85% free throw shooter. But in that specific situation (tie game, missed the first, need the second), I don’t think that percentage necessarily holds up. I’ll give him a 2/3 probability. So there was a 33% chance the game was headed to OT, in which we would have had (theoretically) a 50% chance of winning. So, without the tech, our win probability was around 17% (rounding upwards for the home team).

Post-dawg toss, Weatherspoon essentially had two to make one. What were the chances he missed both? I’ll bump him back up to 80% on the tech, assuming the lesser psychological burden. However, if he misses the tech, the burden reasserts. {(1.0 – 0.8) * (1.0 – 0.67)} / 2 = a 3.3% chance of UGA prevailing.

17% – 3.3% = a -13.7% probability of victory change. And so, the amount of blame I am assigning to the dawg tosser is ONE HUNDRED PERCENT, WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU?

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]]>I think the UGA fans let the refs off easy. There should have been loud and continuous booing. And when the refs hit UGA with a tech for the dawg toss, every dawg in the building should have hit the floor. What were they gonna do, give the Dawgs 3,000 technicals?

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